Chinese researchers have revealed that the Tibetan Plateau is expected to experience accelerated warming in the next 10 years, according to the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
While traditional climate projections can highlight long-term trends, the temperature changes on the Tibetan Plateau over the next decade remain highly uncertain due to substantial internal climate variability.
However, this new study utilizing decadal climate prediction — an emerging tool that combines the initial state of the climate system with external forcing — suggests improved accuracy in regional climate forecasts.
The researchers from the IAP analysed advanced international decadal prediction systems to assess the predictability of temperature changes on the Tibetan Plateau.
Their findings indicate that between 2025 and 2032, the region’s annual mean temperature will rise by 0.98 degrees Celsius compared to the 1991-2020 baseline. This warming rate is 1.75 times faster than the observed increase from 2016 to 2023.
Using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), the researchers simulated the impact of accelerated warming on the Tibetan Plateau glaciers. The results suggest that the warming is projected to reduce glacier volume by approximately 1.4 perc ent, leading to faster melt rates that threaten water security for hundreds of millions across Asia, Xinhua news agency reported. This dramatic loss also risks destabilising regional ecological balance and could trigger far-reaching climatic consequences globally.
The study also highlights that the decadal predictability of Tibetan Plateau temperatures is influenced not only by external factors like greenhouse gas concentrations but also by internal climate variability, particularly the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO).
The study was published in the journal Science Bulletin.
