The country received normal rainfall during the four-month Southwest Monsoon season from June to September, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday, even as there is an extended period of rainfall.
The IMD said the Northeast Monsoon which brings rainfall to southern states from October to December is likely to be normal.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said conditions are very likely to be favourable for the commencement of withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from some parts of northwest India from around October 6.
This is the second most delayed withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon since 1960. Monsoon withdrawal from northwest India in 2019 started on October 9, R K Jenamani, senior forecaster with the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the IMD, said.
The withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from northwest India usually begins from September 17.
“Quantitatively, 2021 all India monsoon seasonal rainfall during June 1 to September 30 has been 87 cm against the Long Period Average of 88 cm of 1961-2010 (99 per cent of its LPA),” Mohapatra said.
“Southwest Monsoon seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole during June-September has been normal (96-106 per cent of the LPA),” he added.
This is for the third consecutive year that the country has recorded rainfall in the normal or above normal category. Rainfall was above normal in 2019 and 2020.
The Southwest Monsoon is critical for the Indian economy whose GDP is still heavily dependent on agriculture and its allied activities. It is crucial for filling the reservoirs which are used to supply drinking water and irrigate vast swathes of land.
The rainfall over the country as a whole was 110 per cent in June, 93 and 76 per cent in July and August respectively — the months that bring the maximum rains. However, the shortfall of July and August was compensated in September which recorded rainfall 135 per cent of the LPA.
In its four divisions, the IMD said, the Southwest Monsoon rainfall was normal over northwest India (96 per cent) and central India (104 per cent), below normal over east and northeast India (88 per cent), and above normal over South Peninsula India (111 per cent).
Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh in the Northeast, Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, west Uttar Pradesh and Lakshadweep received deficient rainfall.
West Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, north interior Karnataka, Gangetic West Bengal, Konkan and Goa, Marathwada and Andaman and Nicobar recorded excess rainfall during the monsoon season.
The Southwest Monsoon made its onset over Kerala on June 3, after a delay of two days. It rapidly covered central, west, east, northeast and south India by June 15.
It also covered many parts of north India, even Barmer and Jaisalmer — its last outposts — but the monsoon winds failed to reach Delhi, parts of Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh.
It then witnessed a lull. It finally covered Delhi, parts of Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh, on July 13, five days after its normal onset date, belying IMD”s forecasts.
Mohapatra said it again witnessed a lull from August 3 and entered the active phase of August 18. The month recorded a large deficiency. It again entered an active phase.
The season also saw formation of 13 cyclonic circulations — low pressure, well marked low pressure area, depression, deep depression and cyclone — which are critical during the rainfall period.
“It is normal to have 13 systems, but they were not uniformly distributed, Mohapatra added.
June saw two low pressure areas, July recorded two low pressure areas (LPA) and two well-marked low pressure areas (WML). August recorded four LPAs. However, September recorded one cyclone (Gulab), one deep depression and four WML, he added.
In its forecast for the Northeast Monsoon, the IMD said, Northeast Monsoon 2021 is likely to be normal (89-113 per cent of the LPA).”
Northeast Monsoon brings rains over Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema, Kerala, south interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep.
The monthly rainfall for October 2021 over the south peninsula is most likely to be normal.
